九月底在緬甸仰光爆發的「袈裟革命」，迅速成為世界傳媒的焦點。因為能源價格上漲一個民生問題，何以引發數十萬人的抗議示威和流血衝突？冰凍三尺非一日之寒。緬甸戰後獲得獨立，初行民主制。一九六二年奈溫將軍發動政變，推翻吳努而上台，實行高壓獨裁統治。一九八八年夏天爆發大規模民主示威，被奈溫鐵腕鎮壓，有三千人被殺害。次年奈溫退休下台，蘇貌將軍為首的軍事執政團接掌政權，一黨專政。一九九二年丹瑞將軍接任至今，還是軍人獨裁的一黨專政。一九九○年的多黨大選中，昂山素姬的民主聯盟勝出，竟然被軍政府宣布無效，並對民運領袖昂山素姬三次逮捕，軟禁至今。而軍政府的統治貪污無能，經濟蕭條……可見，軍政府早已是一個民憤積深的政權。這次反政府運動，由僧侶帶頭，依然遭到武力鎮壓，顯示社會矛盾已經到了不可抑制的地步。
我們關注的方面，當然免不了中緬關係。最近，全世界都看到美國總統布殊在聯合國提出制裁緬甸的計畫時，中國外交部的反應是「中國不干涉緬甸內政」，「希望雙方克制，維持社會穩定」。稍早，北京已在安理會對制裁緬甸投了否決票——這不費解。中共不僅在毛時代和號稱社會主義的獨裁者奈溫關係密切，後來更因幾乎同時的八十年代末期的鎮壓民主而臭名昭著、休戚與共。中國是緬甸政治、經濟上最大的盟友、支持者、保護者——已經成為近來新聞的關鍵詞。
其實，中共在當代亞洲地緣政治史上，一直是扮演著極其惡劣而從無自省的角色。毛大肆輸出革命的時代，在東南亞早已劣跡斑斑。紅色高棉令人髮指的血腥浩劫，中共是師爺和後台。在毛後時代，支持那個殘暴無道的北韓金氏政權，延續到胡錦濤的意識形態政策之中。現在各方人士都在呼籲北京發揮影響力，制止緬甸當局的暴行，或許中南海的決策者為了北京奧運，會行使一下權宜之計以敷衍國際社會。但是，實質上解決緬甸危機，能夠指望一個邪惡聯盟的成員，真誠地干預他的同盟者嗎？而且，緬甸小兄弟眼見北京老大哥在六四事件千夫所指之下，也挺過十八年，如今風光蓋世，早已作出了有恃無恐的示範。
緬甸新的鎮壓事件，對於渴望民主的中國人，卻是富於極大的啟示。中國和緬甸的國情當然很不相同，但是這二十年來，政治上是殊途而同歸。一樣的一黨獨裁，一樣的高壓專制；一樣的民怨沸騰，一樣的欠債不還。差別只是在於中國沒有佛教之於緬甸、天主教之於東歐那樣大的宗教勢力，在於中國還沒有出現一位昂山素姬那樣眾望所歸的民運領袖。很多人一再表達過尊重體制內改革實現中國民主轉型的願望，無論路有多麼漫長，這種願望不會放棄。但是，願望的實現，還要當局的善意回應。迄今為止沒有這種回應。中共十七大召開在即，我們看到的是高牆內部權爭不歇，牆外如臨大敵。官方媒體歌功頌德，一點政治改革的議論也沒有。不容置疑﹕中國民主化的未來，注定少不了體制外的互動和抗爭，同樣的，無論打壓多麼嚴厲，這種抗爭也不會放棄。
（ 2007 年 9 月 29 日 紐約）
Behind Myanmar's Military Junta
By Jin Zhong
The "Saffron Revolution" in Myanmar (formerly known as Burma ) rapidly became the focus of the international news media. How could a basic livelihood issue such as gas prices result in a demonstration by more than one hundred thousand people, and ultimately a bloody conflict? In fact, the causes of the antagonism are deep-seated.
In the early postwar period, Burma gained its independence and began to practice democracy. But in 1962, the Burmese government under U Nu was overturned by General Ne Win in a coup d'etat, after which Ne Win established a military dictatorship. In the summer of 1988, massive demonstrations broke out against the Ne Win government, but were ultimately suppressed by the army. Three thousand demonstrators were killed. The next year, Ne Win retired and disappeared from the politic stage. The new ruler, Saw Maung, was also a military dictator, and continued ruling under a single-party dictatorship. In 1992, Saw Maung was succeeded by General Than Shwe, but the change in leadership brought no change to state power, which remained in the hands of the military dictatorship. In a multi-party general election in 1990, Aung San Suu Kyi of the Democratic Union emerged the winner, but the result of this election was nullified by the military junta, which placed Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. Although released temporarily three times, Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest to the present day.
The military junta has proven itself corrupt and lawless, and the economy of Burma , now called Myanmar , has deteriorated, bringing public discontent to a boil. The violent suppression of the most recent protests, led by Buddhist monks, indicates that the antagonism between the government and the people has reached an extreme.
While focusing on the situation in Myanmar , we cannot lose sight of the relations between Myanmar and China . When U.S. President George W. Bush proposed that the United Nations issue sanctions against the Myanmar government, China 's Ministry of Foreign Affairs immediately stated, "We will not interfere Burma 's internal affairs," and "We hope both sides will show restraint to maintain social stability." By that point, China had already vetoed a UN Security Council vote on imposing sanctions on the Myanmar government. None of these actions by China should come as a surprise. Early in the Mao era, Communist China maintained close relations with the Ne Win government, and in the late 1980s, the Burmese and Chinese governments both raised international outrage with their violent suppression of democratic movements. Now we see the international press frequently mentioning China as a back-stage supporter, ally and protector of Myanmar 's military junta.
In fact, China 's Communist Party has played a consistently disreputable and shameless role in the modern history of Asia . At one point, Mao attempted to export his revolutionary theories to other Asian countries, but ultimately failed and earned himself a dismal reputation in the countries of the southeast. The notorious killing fields of Cambodia under the Khmer Rouge had the CCP behind them, and North Korea 's cruel dictatorial Kim regime has also enjoyed consistent CCP support. To this day, the Hu Jintao government maintains the official Chinese policy of supporting North Korea . Now Beijing has received appeals from all sides to exert its influence on the Myanmar government, and under international pressure Beijing has made some superficial moves in this direction. Ultimately, however, Myanmar 's military junta and the Chinese government are birds of a feather, so what hope is there that the Chinese government will really restrain its brother regime? To the dictators of Myanmar , the CCP is an example to emulate. Following the suppression of 1989 democratic movement, Beijing is even more stable and prosperous than before. With this kind of precedent for the suppression of democracy, the dictators of Myanmar have no need to fear for their future.
Myanmar 's pro-democracy demonstrations should provoke China 's people to reflect on their own democratic rights. Although Myanmar is another country, its rulers, like China 's, rule under a single-party dictatorship that suppresses democracy and rides roughshod over the people. The only difference is the Chinese people's lack of a unifying religious belief and a democratic leader such as Aung San Suu Kyi. Some people have hoped that the Communist Party might reform China 's political system from within, but up to now there has been no such response from China 's leaders.
With the 17th Party Congress about to begin, we see a struggle for power and the official press eulogizing the Party's virtues and achievements, but no indication of politic reform. Clearly, the struggle for democracy must be fought mainly outside the government. It is equally clear that this struggle will not be abandoned, no matter how ruthlessly it is suppressed.
September 29, 2007 , in New York
