隨著巴基斯坦著名政治家貝布托在暗殺中倒下，二○○八年來到人間。從香港人的立場迎接新年，是不無遺憾的。因為過去的一年，是九七回歸時許諾有希望舉行「○七○八雙普選」的一年，結果雙泡湯。近日特首曾蔭權在北京宣稱，感謝中央允許香港在二○一七年普選特首。一拖又是十年！到時候是不是又會找理由「跳票」？我們判斷過，共產黨本質上是不會給香港人選票的，它需要的是馴化港人成為愛國愛黨的順民，未來十年，香港的土共執政必然強化，那時會有一場什麼樣的選舉呢？誰願意等待？
二○○八年的世界視野，是一個選舉年。吸引中國人關注的三場競選都已開鑼：美國、俄羅斯和台灣的總統選舉。美國奉行保守主義路線的布殊政府將任滿下台；俄國普京做滿兩任，也要讓位，可能不做總統做總理。這兩個昔日的「超級大國」，無論民主制度的差異有多大，他們的總統大選已是一種法定程序的實施，不關基本制度的選擇。台灣一月的立法委員選舉之後，三月的總統大選卻非同小可。陳水扁連任屆滿下台，馬英九和謝長廷的對決，已經沸沸揚揚吵了不止一年，直到最近馬英九弊案二審無罪後，藍綠勝負前景仍然相當模糊。由於台灣兩大陣營之爭涉及國家認同等重大分歧，二○○八年的台灣政治發展，將是一個甚為關鍵而又充滿變數的時期，必然會引起全球華人的高度關注。
回看中國，他們把二○○八叫做奧運年。將於八月八日在北京開幕的夏季奧運會，無疑是共產中國建立以來的天賜良機，讓他們得以盡情展示他們一切可以誘惑世界的功夫，從崛起的華廈到文化的魅力，給他們五十年的罪孽作一次最漂亮的粉飾。現在已有不少團體和個人在抵制這個踐踏人權的專制國家主辦的奧運，或是要求中國履行主辦奧運的承諾，開放新聞自由，改善人權狀況。但是，中共當局尚未作出積極回應，仍然是一副故步自封姿態。
美國新聞周刊形容中國是一個「強悍而又脆弱的超級強權」，二○○八年將是「中國進入世界舞台中央的一年」。這是當前西方輿論對崛起的中國的代表性觀感，基本上也是共產黨堅守這塊最後陣地的自我感覺。可是，記得一九三六年德國奧運和一九八○年莫斯科奧運的人們，會有另外一種感覺，那就是如北京一群老輩知識份子公開說出來的那樣，他們要再活二十年，等著看這本大戲的最後落幕。不錯，二○○八年可能是一個興奮的高潮，中共也是善於製造高潮、利用高潮的能手。但是，高潮不能使人脫胎換骨。我們將等著瞧八月奧運究竟會給中國留下什麼？
China and the World in 2008
Editorial by Jin Zhong
The assassination of the famous Pakistani politician Benazir Bhutto rang in the New Year 2008. From the perspective of Hong Kongers, the New Year should have been greeted with regret, given the dashed hopes in 2007 of achieving the universal suffrage China had promised in 1997. Recently, Chief Executive Donald Tsang thanked the Central Government for allowing Hong Kong to have universal suffrage for the 2017 election of the Chief Executive. Another 10 years to go! Will China find some new reason for delay when that time comes as well? As we observed before, the Communist Party has no intention of providing Hong Kong people with genuine and meaningful suffrage; what it wants is to tame them while it strengthen Hong Kong's indigenous Communists over the next 10 years. What kind of elections will we have then? Is anybody still willing to wait?
From the global point of view, 2008 will be a year of elections. Presidential elections raising Chinese people's concern have already been launched in the United States , Russia and Taiwan . The conservative Bush government in the United States is about the leave the stage, while Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to wrap up his two terms in office and possibly take up the post of Prime Minister. These two long-term Superpowers, for all the differences between their democratic systems, have their presidential elections in place with full legal backing, and no need to select a basic system. Close on the heels of January's Legislative Yuan elections in Taiwan will come an extremely significant presidential election in March. Chen Shui-bian will fall from power when he finishes his second term. The battle between Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh Chang-ting has been a focal point for more than a year. The outcome is still far from certain, even though a second verdict found Ma not guilty of corruption. Given that the struggle between the two camps in Taiwan involves disagreements over basic issues such as national identification, 2008 will be a critical period in terms of Taiwan 's political development, and Chinese around the world will surely be highly concerned with it.
Let's get back to China . Chinese people call 2008 the Olympic year. Undoubtedly, the Summer Olympics, which will be launched in Beijing on 8 August, is one of the PRC's most critical opportunities since its establishment to show its best face to the world. China 's rise to power and its cultural mystique has helped the Communist Party whitewash 50 years of wrongdoings. Now a number of groups and individuals are boycotting Olympic Games organized by an autocratic country that tramples on human rights. They're demanding that China fulfill its promise to improve press freedom and human rights in the run-up to the Games. The deeply entrenched Chinese authorities have yet to respond, however.
A recent Newsweek cover story described China as a “fierce yet fragile superpower,” and predicted that 2008 will be seen as “the year that China moved to the center stage.” This is typical of the view currently held by Western observers regarding the rising nation, and it is a feeling that the Chinese government is exploiting in maintaining its ground. Those who still remember the 1936 Berlin Olympics and the 1980 Moscow Olympics will have another feeling, which was expressed by a senior intellectual who said he wanted to live 20 more years to see the last act of this play. It is true that 2008 may bring an exciting climax, and the Chinese Communist Party is expert in creating and exploiting climaxes. But a climax is not a transformation. Let's wait and see what 2008 Olympics will bring China in the long term.
( 30 th December, 2007 in New York )
