看台美總統大選
◎ 金 鐘

 

一年之計在於春。三月是北半球的春天,今年三月,對於我們來說,最大的新聞莫過於台灣的總統大選。陳水扁八年執政的結束,台灣政局正面臨新一輪政黨輪替的選擇。三月二十二日的投票,對於台灣海峽兩岸未來互動的影響,也是觀察家密切注意的重點。本期重點文章介紹了選前藍綠陣營的強弱對比,並未以民調作為主要依據,而是側重台灣政治版圖的具體分析,指出馬英九謝長廷對壘還有相當的灰色地帶,如果投票率很高,即使沒有意外,雙方的較量也將是可觀的。

從關懷中國民主的角度看,我們更為重視的是台灣民主制度的成長,如果這個台灣人珍惜的制度在走向成熟,那麼,誰當選並非最重要和唯一的目標。只有在獨裁和極權制度下誰上台才是具有重大影響的事。   

  

最近美國大選的進展,給了我們許多啟示。雖然要到十一月方能選出新一屆總統,但春季的兩黨提名競選已顯示趨勢。民眾期望甚高的民主黨候選人之爭,正出現戲劇性的轉向,名氣很高的希拉莉已經從大幅領先退居有黑人血統的奧巴馬的下風。他們在各州競逐,精釆紛呈。事關「美國第一位女性或黑人總統」這歷史性話題,份外引人注目。比較台灣的兩黨政治,我們看到美台大選都有候選人之間的相互挑戰與指控,台灣是馬謝對決,美國是同黨的希奧爭奪,都一樣無情,不留餘地,儘管可能有抹黑之評,但對選民而言都是有益的,他們有權知道將管治自己國家的領導人的一切,然後投下神聖的一票。這是我們最重視的權利。渴望民主的中國人都會想,如果我們的領導人,也以這樣的方式選出,該有多好。   

當然,台灣民主和美國民主不僅成熟度差距不小,而且選舉的內涵也不可比擬,起碼美國沒有台灣面對的國家認同這樣嚴重的憲政分歧。可以相信的是,民主制度的基本架構和信念,在台灣已經建立,誰當總統都不可能在這個基本面上實行顛覆性的倒退。中共的一國兩制或武力統一都不可能為藍綠選民所接受。   

  

即將召開的北京三月人大,官方媒體把行將出台的大部制行政體制改革,稱為「政治改革的一部份」,也有傳言說胡溫再準備五年,交班給習近平李克強後,政治改革就將起步。這都是自欺欺人的夢幻之說。看看美台的總統大選,看看不久前中國南方雪災的慘狀,誰都可以得出結論,共產中國僵硬的政治體制已如冰凍三尺,豈是一朝可以化解?大陸政治體制的轉型,當前首要之務,仍然是啟蒙,打破教條,提昇對民主制度的認知,對當代普世價值觀的認同。否則,不足以言起步。   

 


U.S. and Taiwan Election Highlights
By Jin Zhong

Spring is the best season for planning the year ahead. This March, the biggest news is unquestionably the presidential election in Taiwan. Chen Shui-bian’s eight-year term has come to an end, and Taiwan now has the opportunity to change its ruling party. The election, set for March 22, has focused attention on its ramifications for both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Based on election surveys, this issue of Open Magazine compares the relative strengths of the pan-blue camp and pan-green camps, and analyzes the grey areas in the Ma-Hsieh contest. If the polling rate is high, the contest should be worth watching, even if there are no surprises.

From the perspective of the democratization of China, we value the development of Taiwan’s democratic system. If the system in Taiwan is maturing, then the outcome in terms of which individual is elected is not the most significant or only objective, unlike an election in a totalitarian dictatorship.

The recent progress of the U.S. presidential election is inspiring. Although the new president will not be elected until November, the primary campaigns this spring have already shown interesting trends. There has been a dramatic change in the fight for the Democratic nomination, with Barack Obama now in the lead over Hillary Clinton. Their contest in various states has focused attention on the possibility of America having its first female or black president. As in the case of the Taiwan election, the candidates are engaged in a knock-down-drag-out fight. Some offensive comments may result, but it helps voters learn more about the individuals who might govern their country before casting their votes. This is our most important right. Chinese people who yearn for democracy may think, “How wonderful it would be if our president could be elected in this way.”

There is, of course, a big difference in the democratic development of Taiwan and the United States, and likewise we cannot compare the quality of the election. At the very least, the U.S. does not have serious political disagreements over basic issues such as national identification to contend with. In any case, we can believe that the basic framework and faith in a democratic system has been established in Taiwan. In this respect, the system will not be subverted, no matter who is elected President. Taiwan voters will not accept Chinese rule under “one country, two systems” or unification by armed force.

The CPC National People’s Congress will hold its new session in Beijing in March. The official media refer to the upcoming “super-ministry reforms” as part of a larger political reform. Rumor has it that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao will prepare for five more years, and political reform will be launched once Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang come to power. This is a mere fantasy. Compared with the U.S. and Taiwan presidential elections, the Chinese government’s performance during the recent blizzard in Southern China leads to the conclusion that the inflexible political system of Communist China is too deep-rooted to be reformed. The main task necessary for the transformation of China’s political system is enlightenment, breaking through dogma, improving knowledge of the democratic system and acknowledging modern universal values. Without this, we cannot even make a start.

March 1, 2008

(Translated by Isabella Lam)