西藏、台灣、北京
◎ 金 鐘

 

三月是賞花踏青好時節,今年這個三月卻帶給我們出人意表的政治事件,大戲連場,舞台在西藏、台灣、北京。明星是達賴喇嘛、馬英九。演出新版「兩岸三地關係」。   為紀念達賴喇嘛一九五九年流亡印度的「抗暴日」:三月十日。中國境內的藏人在西藏、四川、青海、甘肅等藏區,舉行了持續不斷的大規模抗議示威。他們打出雪山獅子旗,要求西藏獨立,呼喊達賴喇嘛萬歲,遭到當局軍警的阻撓和鎮壓,演變成騷亂和流血事件,從而震撼國際,引發全球性的聲援西藏運動,直接衝擊著北京舉辦奧運的正當性。溫家寶的危機應變反應,還是毛時代的老套,視任何民變都是「階級敵人」的陰謀,當眾撒謊,栽誣達賴喇嘛,無異引火燒身,推高了抗議浪潮,連台灣藍營馬英九都予以痛斥:「蠻橫無理,自大愚蠢」。

中共當局這種殘暴顢頇的演出,也幫助馬英九創造奇蹟,以二百二十萬票之差贏得總統選舉,「西藏牌」並沒有如預期地給民進黨加分。這是今次台灣大選的中國因素發酵的詭異現象。兩岸關係一直是台灣民主進程中一個巨大的背景。馬謝對決,雖以拼經濟為主軸,但「兩岸政策」仍是雙方攻防的首選議題。選舉的順利進行,政黨輪替的文明風度,贏得「民主成熟」的普遍好評,殊不知台灣的這種成熟也包含在兩黨「選賢與能」的中國對策上。馬英九有明確的政治承諾:「台灣前途由台灣人民決定」、「任內絕不談統一」、「捍衛台灣主體性」、「推動台灣重返聯合國」......這些主張實質上難道不是和中共反「台獨」的立場針鋒相對嗎?   但是,本土派的至少數百萬選民,對馬的主體意識論述仍心存疑慮。會不會是選舉語言,誇張其詞,上台之後就變臉?其次,在一黨獨大的格局下,馬將受到黨內的制約,而國民黨內大佬如林、家法威嚴,根深的大中國意識和利益結構,已在向北京日趨傾斜,馬英九會不會被黨綁架而喪失權威?再次,馬是在「修身齊家治國平天下」的儒家傳統中成長和塑造的,這種傳統和台灣主體價值所附麗其上的民族文化基礎有顯然的差異。因此,馬英九藉由全台走透透,跨越濁水溪,獲得中南部選民空前的支持,仍只是成功的開始。

中共方面,對台統戰自有滿肚密圈,馬剛當選,馬上釋出善意,竟然將統一「三段論」中的核心「中華人民共和國是代表中國的唯一合法政府」改口為「大陸與台灣同屬一個中國」,給人以放棄大陸主體之惑;胡錦濤則與馬英九呼應,認同「九二共識」,而兩岸通航「明天就可以實現」。中共留給馬英九的利基,恐怕陸續有來。化解馬英九的脫軌異動之心,路人皆知。   從美國到台灣,人民都在呼喚「改變」,惟有僵硬的中華王朝在追求「穩定和諧」,北京應該重溫孫中山先生的話:「世界潮流,浩浩蕩蕩,順之者昌,逆之者亡。」

 


Tibet, Taiwan & Beijing
By Jin Zhong


March is a good time for outings, but what this year’s March has brought us goes far beyond this. It offered a string of unexpected political shows on the stages of Tibet, Taiwan and Beijing, starring the Dalai Lama and Ma Ying-jeou in a new performance of “Cross-straits Tri-regional Relations”.

In memory of the “Tibetan Uprising” on March 10, 1959, when Dalai Lama escaped to India, Tibetans in Tibet and the Tibetan regions of Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu have launched a series of large-scale protests and demonstrations. Tibetan protesters who displayed the flag of Tibet while calling for Tibetan independence and crying out “long live the Dalai Lama!” were stopped and suppressed by the military police, and the protests soon developed into riots and bloodshed that shocked the whole world, spurring a global movement in support of Tibet and underlining doubts people have had about the appropriateness of Beijing hosting the Olympic games. Wen Jia-bao reacted to the threat in the same old way of the Mao Zedong era, seeing any kind of unrest as a plot by “public enemies.” He lied to the public and slandered the Dalai Lama, arousing an even fiercer reaction from protesters. Even Ma Ying-jeou from Taiwan’s “blue” camp denounced Wen as “arbitrary, unreasonable, arrogant and stupid.”

? ?The cruel and muddleheaded actions of the PRC authorities helped Ma Ying-jeou create an astonishing victory in the presidential election, garnering 2.2 million votes more than Frank Hsieh Chang-ting. Contrary to expectations, support for Tibet did not help the DPP in the election. It is a strange phenomenon resulting from the China factor in Taiwan’s elections. Cross-straits relations have long provided the backdrop for democratic progress in Taiwan. Although the economy was the focus of the Ma-Hsieh debates, “cross-straits policy” remained the first topic for discussion for both camps. The smooth progress of the election and the civilized handover of power between the two parties also won praise for Taiwan’s “mature democracy.” Less remarked upon was the maturity Taiwan reached this time in the China policies of both parties. Ma stated a clear political platform: “Taiwan’s future is decided by Taiwan people,” “no talks on unification during his term,” “defending Taiwan’s subjectivity,” “promoting Taiwan’s return to the UN”… Don’t these all run counter to the long-standing “anti-Taiwan independence” stance of the PRC?

At least a few million local voters cast doubts on Ma’s statement about Taiwan’s subjectivity. Was this merely a tactic to win votes? Will he change once he takes office? With the increasing power of the KMT, its strict rules, deep-rooted “Greater China” mentality and interests that increasingly coincide with Beijing’s, Ma may find himself restricted by the Party. Will he be controlled by the Party and lose his authority? Moreover, Ma grew up under Confucian tradition, which is at variance with the cultural foundation to which Taiwan’s subjective values are attached. For that reason, winning unprecedented support from Taiwan’s central and southern region is still just the beginning for Ma.

The PRC has its tactics for unification. Once Ma Ying-jeou was declared Taiwan’s president elect, the PRC changed its core statement that “the PRC is the only legal government representing China” to “the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China,” leading some people to think that the PRC was yielding ground. Meanwhile, Hu Jin-tao responded to Ma concerning the 1992 Consensus, stating that direct cross-straits transportation “may be implemented tomorrow.” The PRC will probably give even more such favors to Ma in an obvious attempt to turn him from his more objectionable ideas.

From the United States to Taiwan, people are calling for “change.” Only the stubborn “Chinese Dynasty” is looking for “stability and harmony.” As Dr. Sun Yat-sen said, “World trends are powerful; those who follow them will prosper, while those who go against them will lose.” Beijing government should seriously reconsider Dr. Sun’s words.

31st March, 2008 in Hong Kong

(Translated by Isabella Lam)