一個玩具消費近於零的國家
◎ 金 鐘

從美國雷曼公司破產引發的金融危機,如海嘯般席捲全球,中美經貿關係如此密切,危機效應下中國經濟如何自處?中國以經濟維持政治的局面又該如何評估?未來走向何處?涉及專業性強,我們特地邀請五位專家作出分析,他們都是經驗豐富、善於表達的高手,拜讀他們的大作既是資訊的享受,也是一次認識當代全球化經濟問題的機會。


在傳媒大量的相關資料中,一條「廣東玩具巨商合俊集團倒閉,引發行業恐慌」的消息,令人矚目。報導說,世界玩具八成由中國生產,而中國玩具又有七成在廣東製造。合俊是業內龍頭企業,年銷售額超過七億元,產品七成銷往美國。工人達八千七百名。公司拖欠工資近三千萬元,欠貨款二億元,老闆停業後逃之夭夭……現由政府出面墊發所欠工資,以維持社會穩定。合俊被認為是「美國金融危機波及中國實體經濟企業倒閉的第一案。」
當局指控合俊老闆惡意欠薪、騙貨騙款。這宗惡性倒閉的案子實則在大陸很典型,完全不是負責任的現代企業之所為,帶有三十年遍及大陸的暴發戶的經營特徵。今年上半年,中國以出口為主的玩具業已經倒了三千餘家,不知有多少員工會遭到合俊這樣的欺凌。而且,隨?金融危機方興未艾,美國家庭的消費能力持續下降,不知道依附於對美外貿的中國出口企業,還有多少難逃鬼門關?中國發達依靠的三套馬車:進出口、內需和投資,在危機衝擊下,進出口與投資受損無疑,提升內需自然也是困難重重。


令人玩味不已的是,關於玩具市場的一項統計顯示,人均一年的玩具消費,中國為人民幣十五元,美國卻高達三百四十九美元,是中國的一百七十倍!即以十四歲以下的兒童統計,美國也達到人均年消費額二百八十七美元。中國傳媒樂觀地說,中國三億兒童是一個潛在的巨大市場。似乎這條內銷之路可以擺脫危機的困境。這大約只是一廂情願。


現在中國玩具消費只佔世界的百分之三。人均十五元只是一個盒飯的價錢,在貧富懸殊的背景下,意味著大多數孩子玩具消費接近於零。這是一個驚人的發現。一個偉大崛起的民族,有摩天大樓、車水馬龍,有奧運的超級豪華、新富階級的酒色財氣,有世界第一的外匯儲備,但孩子們沒有毛公仔、白雪公主,更沒有聖誕樹。這樣乏味的崛起,這樣庸俗的民族,和世界接軌三十年,依然令人陌生。殊不知在繁榮的屋簷下,恬靜的家庭文明已被無情扭曲,男人們瘋狂地玩弄金錢、權力和女人,他們沒有時間、沒有心情和孩子們玩耍。社會窮苦的大多數,掙扎在生存的巨大壓力下,也不可能把愛心和悲情寄托在孩子的玩具上。中國對美進出口的巨大順差,竟是建立在這樣可怕的文明差異之上!拜金主義掩蓋了無數沒有玩具的童年。


毛時代把私領域摧毀到連過生日也不知道的地步,三十年的改革開放遠遠來不及建設一個新的文明,甚至連知識界的反思空間也被擠掉。這就是維繫?我們為之心疼的兒童純真心靈的信物——玩具,在無聲訴說的中國現實。

(2008年10月28日)

 


A Country Without Toys
By Jin Zhong

 

The financial crisis induced by Lehman Brothers’ collapse in the US is sweeping the world like a tsunami. How should China, in such a close economic partnership with the US, react to the crisis? How should the fact that the economy provides the basis for China’s political status be assessed? What economic trend does China face in the future? In this issue, we have invited five experts to analyze the current situation. Their well-written articles offer us an opportunity to explore current economic problems around the globe.??

The news headline “Guangdong Toy Giant Shutdown Panics the Industry” has caught considerable attention in recent news coverage. According to the media, 80 percent of the world’s toys are made in China, among which 70 percent are produced in Guangdong Province. Smart Union Group is a leading toy maker in the industry, with an annual sales volume of more than 700 million RMB, and 70 percent of its products are sold to the United States. It is reported that the company has debts of 200 million RMB and owes nearly 30 million RMB in wages to 8,700 workers. Following the closure of the companies factories, the owners disappeared… For the sake of social stability, the government has said it will compensate the workers for their lost wages. The collapse of Smart Union is thought to be the first case of Chinese enterprises going bankrupt amidst the US financial crisis.? ??

The owner of Smart Union is accused of malicious wage default and fraud. The totally irresponsible acts in this case are in fact typical of enterprises operated by mainland upstarts in the past three decades. The first half of this year saw the closure of more than 3,000 toy factories operated mainly for export. We still do not know how many workers will be cheated like those in Smart Union. Moreover, since the financial crisis has just begun and the consumption power of American families is expected to drastically decrease, we still do not know how many enterprises in China dependent on export to the US can survive the crisis. Import and export, domestic demand and investment, the three keys to China’s prosperity, are now threatened by the crisis. Import and export and investment will no doubt be affected, and even in domestic demand China faces a rocky road ahead.?

Interestingly, a survey of the toy market shows that China’s annual per capita consumption of toys is 15 RMB, whilst that of the US is US$349, 170 times China’s consumption! For children under 14, annual toy consumption in the US has reached US$287. The optimistic Chinese media maintain that China’s 300 million children form a huge potential market, and domestic sales should provide a way of avoiding the plight caused by the economic crisis. That may be mere wishful thinking.

Today, China’s toy consumption of toys accounts for only 3 percent of the world total. Per capita consumption of 15 RMB is merely the value of a lunch box. Given the uneven distribution of wealth, this means that for the vast majority of China’s children, toy consumption is virtually nil. What a shocking discovery! The children of a great rising power with skyscrapers, extravagant Olympics, arrogant nouveau riche, and the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves have no teddy bears, Snow White dolls or Christmas trees. China remains an anomaly in the world, even after opening its doors to the world for three decades. Peaceful family culture has been ruthlessly distorted by prosperity as men trifle with money, power and women and neglect their children. Meanwhile, on the other side of the great income divide, the majority of ordinary people continue to struggle for basic survival, leaving them little time or money for toys.

In the Mao era, privacy was destroyed so thoroughly that the people forgot their own birthdays. It is too late to construct a new civilization through a mere 30 years of economic reform. This is reality about China that toys—the token of children’s innocent minds—silently reveal to us.

 

28th October, 2008
Translated by Isabella Lam