北京高調紀念「改革開放三十年」之後，二○○九年來到人間。新的一年將是給中國人帶來強烈暗示、預感和期待的一年。一九四九年共產政權統治中國，已經六十年。按照中國的傳統曆法，六十年一「甲子」，為紀年的一個大循環。一九四九是已丑年，二○○九也是已丑年。周而復始，萬象更新。和幾千年匍匐在皇權之下的臣民一樣，今天的中國人盡管摩登為榮，洋派十足，仍然是一個無權的部落，他們惟有乞靈上天，而對於歷史的輪迴報應，特別敏感。
現在，人們習慣將過去六十年，劃分為前後兩個三十年。前三十年，付出幾千萬人命的代價，忍看暴君歸天，才從暴政中掙扎出來，尋找新的生路。後三十年，轉眼又成歷史。中國人還要不要再一次尋路？毛將死未死的時候，青年們傳頌著詩人的名句﹕「我不相信天是藍的，我不相信雷的回聲，我不相信夢是假的，我不相信死無報應。」三十年哪，夢想何在？報應何在？財富空前的堆積起來，十三億人只有五百個家庭享有特權，百分之四的人口佔有百分之八十的財富，多數人飽受住房、醫療、教育之苦。官僚們花天酒地，公費私用，窮奢極慾。一個區政府竟然敢於蓋一座「白宮」式的辦公樓，還把檢舉者送進監牢，置於死地。多少人這樣冒犯權貴而慘遭報復。一句不同政見，就要失業或者亡命天涯，連詩人也不准回歸祖國。
擺脫了暴政，沒有換回人的自由、人的尊嚴、人的主權。錦衣玉食包裹的只是高級的生物本能，只是一群做奴隸的人們。新的生路仍舊茫茫然無所尋——這就是零八憲章出世的必然。她傳承七七憲章，也是六四事件的迴聲。北京八九民運掘開共產專制主義墓地的第一鏟土，卻成了中共的「反面教員」。當局積二十年的輝煌於一點，就是預防惡夢成真，變危機為轉機。他們的信心不容低估，胡錦濤的九字訣「不動搖、不懈怠、不折騰」已然昭告天下，他們還要奪取下一個三十年。比之一九八九，他們儲備了足夠的資金、人力和技術，也儲備了足夠的硬道理、主旋律和潛規則。
當前這場國際性經濟危機，GDP依附於外貿的中國，難免其害。但是，這還不是中南海心中的危機。不僅特權階層已有防火牆自我保護，沒有福利保障的是廣大民眾。他們甚至可能像三十年代的蘇聯那樣，在西方的經濟大蕭條中獨蒙其利。在內部，他們用高科技和各界精英構建的國安體系，二十年來已更為成熟，無孔不入地伸展到國內外。重要的是，北京的對台統戰，已取得戰略性的重大進展。在武力威懾和國共聯手反獨之下，三通的實施，阿扁的弊案，成功地將兩岸對峙轉化為台灣內部鬥爭。這一趨勢，不僅可能消解海峽軍事衝突的爆發，改變中美台在遠東的地緣政治關係。而且，助長了中共權力層的保守慣性，包括他們面對異己挑戰時的保持一致。這和八九年高層存在嚴重分歧的狀態，不可同日而語。
正如哈維爾指出，中國憲政維權運動，將遭遇三十年前捷克知識份子一樣的命運﹕拒絕對話甚至鎮壓。哈維爾和自由世界相信面對荊棘滿途的中國維權志士們會有對策，堅韌不拔，取得最後的勝利。
（2008-12-29 MI ）
The Thorny Road Ahead
– For the New Year 2009
◎ Jin Zhong
We stepped into the year 2009 with Beijing’s high-profile celebration of the 30th anniversary of reform and opening. The New Year is going to be a year of implication, portend and expectation for the Chinese people. It has been 60 years since the Communist Party took control of China in 1949. According to the traditional Chinese calendar, 60 years equal one major “jiazi” or major cycle of years; 1949 was a “jichou” year, and so is 2009. Years move in cycles, and everything is renewed with the arrival of the New Year. Today’s Chinese people, though modern and westernized, are still no different from those ruled by imperial power in the previous thousands of years. They have no rights and may only pray to God for help. They are thus particularly sensitive to historical cycles and retribution.?
Today people tend to divide the past six decades into two portions. In the first 30 years, millions of lives were lost in the struggle against despotism for a new way of life. The last 30 years have now become part of history. Should Chinese people seek a new way again? When Mao was dying, the famous verses “I don’t believe the sky is blue, I don’t believe the echoes of thunder, I don’t believe the dream is untrue, I don’t believe in death without retribution” were on every teenager’s lips. Now 30 years have passed. Where is the dream? Is there any retribution? The nation is wealthier than ever, but among China's 1.3 billion people, only 500 families enjoy real privilege, and 80 percent of the wealth is owned by a mere 4 percent of the population. Most of the people suffer hardship while bureaucrats embezzle public assets to support luxurious lifestyles. So we see a district government building constructed to resemble the “White House,” and those who report it to the authorities are jailed or worse. Many have been persecuted for offending members of the elite cliques. They lose their jobs or are exiled for no reason other than because they are dissidents. Even poets are not allowed to return to their homeland.
The elimination of despotism has not returned freedom, dignity and rights to the people. Prosperity is mere window-dressing while the people remain slaves of authority. A new way of life remains out of sight, leading to the birth of “Charter 08,” which inherits the theme of Czechoslovakia's “Charter 77” and echoes the Tiananmen Square protests. The 1989 protests in Beijing, as the first strike against communist autocracy, were regarded as a “negative example” by the CCP. The authorities have endeavored to prevent nightmares from coming true and turn crisis into opportunity. We should never underestimate their confidence. Hu Jintao has announced his “three don’ts”: “don’t waver, don’t slacken and don’t get sidetracked.” The government intends to maintain its grip over the next 30 years. Compared with 1989, it has reserved sufficient capital, manpower and technology, as well as enough hard principles and unspoken rules.?
China is inevitably affected by the current economic crisis due to its dependence on foreign trade. But the government doesn't see this as the greatest threat; the privileged have already set up “firewalls” for self-protection, and those who suffer most will be members of the general public with no welfare and protection. China may even take advantage of the recession in the West as the Soviet Union did in the 1930s. Internally, it has employed high technology and elites to build its management system for national security. This system has matured in the last two decades, stretching its reach beyond China's borders. More importantly, Beijing’s united front policy towards Taiwan has made great strategic progress. With military threat and growing cooperation between the KMT and CCP countering calls for Taiwan independence, the launch of the Three Links and Chen Shui-bian’s corruption case have successfully transformed cross-Strait confrontation into internal conflict in Taiwan. This trend may not only dispel worries of warfare across the Strait, but may also change the political relations between China, the U.S. and Taiwan. In addition, it has encouraged conservatism within the CCP leadership, including their obdurate attitude toward the challenges of dissidents, unlike the serious internal split that existed in 1989.
As pointed out by Vaclav Havel, the human rights campaigns launched in China will have the same fate as those launched by the Czech people 30 years ago: the rejection of dialogue with the government and even suppression. But Havel and others in the free world believe that Chinese human rights activists are prepared with countermeasures to face the thorny road ahead, and that they will persevere in striving for ultimate victory.
2008-12-29
(Translated by Isabella Lam)
