為了趕在春節之前出版，本期提前截稿付印，現在離美國新任總統奧巴馬就職典禮還有兩天，這無疑是今年第一個大新聞。現在全球的鏡頭都在向華盛頓聚焦。十七日，奧巴馬和拜登攜家人搭乘火車經費城、巴爾的摩抵達華盛頓。美聯社估計二十日就職大典的觀禮人數將達四百萬人，大大超過歷史上總統就職觀禮人數一百二十萬的紀錄。民調全部是大比例地看好奧巴馬和他的內閣人選，相信美國內外政策將實現真正的改變，重建「偉大美國、世界標竿」的光榮。美國華人更是一片興奮，奧巴馬的華裔親戚、白宮的亞太項目甚至華人從政、可能的漢語熱，都成為茶餘飯後的話題。
奧巴馬的政治風格也凸顯出來，有兩點予人印象良深，一是對即將下野的布殊總統和共和黨保持謙恭友善的態度，對前任遺留的問題評論很有分寸；二是處處表現他的歷史感。雖有「用詞清晰而又氣派」的過人口才，但談吐不失大國領袖之風，紐約時報已在預言他的就職演說將是能夠留傳後世的傑出演說。剛剛度過激情的二○○八年的中國人，應該有機會對比一下奧運盛況和華府就職大典，胡錦濤改革三十年講話和奧巴馬就職演說——體現的不同政治制度下文化品質的分野。
最近，也是中美建交三十年。已經有美方高官透露七十年代中美對話到建交，雙方立場不同但都有一個共同目標：反蘇。毛周為了反修，爭奪國際共運的霸權，美國則為了反共，遏制共產主義的擴張與威脅。三十多年下來，中美蘇大三角格局的演變結果是甚麼？蘇聯解體、蘇共倒台，並非中美結盟所致，而中國的改革開放也絕非毛周／尼克松和解的初衷，甚至到一九七八年之前，中國民眾沒有從中美結盟中得到絲毫好處，所謂中共十一屆「三中全會」大轉折的靈感，也不是來自西方的啟迪，而是一場禍國殃民大浩劫的必然選擇。
人算不如天算。中美對話和建交卻將中國引上了一條「走資」的不歸路。今日中國一切可以炫耀的成就，從快餐到奧運，從選美到電腦，哪樣不是靠西方引進所致？中國變了，這是千真萬確的事。放棄社會主義，卻又不是真正的走資本主義之路。中國變成一個一黨專制下的「權貴資本主義」，這是中美三十年姻緣產生的一個怪胎。這個怪胎，會不會像電影《異形》那樣，變得令人害怕，誰也控制不了？已有不少跡象使人憂慮，包括奧運後的故態復萌，政治體制的頑固有增無減。而大國三角關係又如何？俄羅斯已浴火重生穩步崛起，中美則由早年的不倫之戀弄成了今日的相依為命。建構在意識形態地基上的中美蘇三角抗衡，轉換成以國家利益為依歸的中美俄新組合。中國從一窮二白走向財大氣粗。美國軍方估計二十年後，中國的經濟和軍事實力將超過美國。在最近這場經濟危機中，世界經濟論壇說，如果中國經濟成長率受美國經濟下滑影響低於百分之六而硬著陸，將威脅全球經濟。可以預料，美俄冷戰消失後的二十一世紀舞台上，將會不斷演出美中較勁的好戲。
（2009年1月18日 紐約）
Thirty Years of US-Sino Relations
By Jin Zhong
The deadline for this issue was advanced to enable publication before the Lunar New Year. Now there are only two days to go until the inauguration of US President-elect Barack Obama. This is undoubtedly the biggest news this year, and Washington, D.C., has become the focus of the whole world. On January 17, Barack Obama and Joe Biden took a train trip with their families from Philadelphia to Baltimore and then to Washington, D.C. The Associated Press estimates that as many as four million people will throng the National Mall, the largest crowd ever attending an inauguration. Polls find that most Americans expect Obama and his cabinet to do a good job and believe there will be real change in both domestic and diplomatic policy, rebuilding the glory of America as a great nation and role model to the world. American Chinese are all excited. Obama’s Chinese relatives, the White House Asia-Pacific project, Chinese entering the political arena, or even a possible trend toward learning Chinese language, all these have become talking points among Chinese people in the United States.
Two points in particular impress people and highlight Barack Obama’s political style. One is his modest and friendly attitude towards the soon-departing President Bush and the Republicans as well as his appropriate comments on the problems left to him by the former administration; another point is the sense of history he displays at all times. Obama's impressive eloquence also demonstrates his charm as the leader of a great country. The New York Times predicts that Obama’s inaugural address will go down in history. Chinese people who have just undergone an eventful 2008 should compare the grand Beijing Olympics with the inauguration in Washington, D.C., and Hu Jintao’s speech on the 30th anniversary of China’s reforms with Barack Obama’s inaugural speech, as an embodiment of the different cultural under different political systems.
This year also marks the 30th anniversary of Sino-US relations. The US government has disclosed that from the time of the Sino-US dialogue to the establishment of diplomatic relations in the 70s, the two countries held different stances but had a common objective: opposition to the USSR. Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai acted against revisionism and thus fought to take the lead in the international communist movement, while the US was acting to prevent the spread and threat of Communism. Now 30 years have passed. How has the great China-US-USSR triangle changed? The collapse of the USSR was not caused by the Sino-US alliance. In the meantime, China’s reforms were by no means the original goal of the reconciliation between Mao, Zhou and Richard Nixon. Before 1978, the Chinese people enjoyed no benefit from the Sino-US alliance. In addition, the so-called great turning point of third plenary session of the 11th Central Committee was not inspired by the West, but was the inevitable choice following national calamity.
Unexpectedly, the dialogue and the establishment of the Sino-US relations led China down a blind alley to “capitalism.” Today, all the achievements that China is flaunting, from fast food to the Olympic Games, pageants to computers, aren't these all from the West? China has changed. It is absolutely true. It abandoned socialism, but is not really on the road to capitalism. China has become a country of “crony capitalism” under the single-party system, a freakish product of the 30 years of relations between China and the US. Is this freak the scary and uncontrollable kind like those in the film “Alien”? Signs indicate that China is reverting to its old vices after the Olympic Games, and its political system is getting even more conservative. What about trilateral relations? Russia is reborn and steadily rising, while the weird relations between China and the US in the early years has now developed into interdependence. The China-US-USSR rivalry built on ideology has been transformed into a new China-US-Russia grouping based on national interest. The impoverished China of the past is now prosperous. The US military estimates that China will exceed the US in economic and military power within two decades. Speaking of the recent economic crisis, the World Economic Forum claims that the global economy will be threatened if China suffers a hard landing that pulls its economic growth below 6 percent under the affects of the US slumping economy. It is foreseeable that on the stage of the twenty-first century, with the Cold War over, there will be more good shows to watch in the Sino-US contest to come.
18th January, 2009 in New York
(Translated by Isabella Lam)
