九月中旬舉行的中共十七屆四中全會，習近平沒有晉升軍委副主席，讓傳媒又折騰了一番，中共的家法黨規有了改變？習氏進常委，當國家副主席、中央黨校校長，擺明接班人架勢，四中全會又作為黨建決議的說明人亮相，不像一場躲貓貓遊戲嗎？其實，根本問題在於，人們關心的是黨內民主。四中公報說「黨內民主是黨的生命」。但是，中辦發佈的國慶六十週年口號，又是另一個景象：五十條口號中有五條強調「和諧」，核心的一條是「堅持黨的領導、人民當家作主、依法治國有機統一！」只說「人民當家作主」，不敢說「民主」。如此高談「和諧」，害怕「民主」，真應了大陸網民所說「草泥馬不敵河蟹橫行」！是不是只准黨內民主，不准百姓民主？害怕人民利用民主造反？果如是，也善莫大焉。（百姓民主緩行、黨內民主先行，正是符合漸進論民主的觀點）。
黨內民主——首先面對的就是他們的接班人制度。這制度和民主國家普選國家領導人完全對立，形成專制與民主最鮮明的區別。因為關係到國家最高權力的產生與繼承。中國憲法與中共黨章都寫明最高領導人由選舉產生，在理論上他們沒有膽量與依據主張國家權力的世襲和私相授受，但實際上卻完全是另一套。從毛到鄧，他們堅持領袖意志，挑選接班人，結果從劉少奇到趙紫陽都遭到慘敗，整個國家並為此付出重大代價。這個制度憑借中共第一代的權威與強勢，延續到江澤民與胡錦濤的上台。顯而易見，江與胡絕無毛鄧指定接班人的威勢，因此，中共「第五代」的上台，即胡錦濤與習近平之間的權力承繼，將遭遇到六十年未見的挑戰，這才是今天真正的看點所在。
換個角度看，這也是給中共高層一個難得的歷史機遇，看他們能不能從以往血的教訓中，從中國邁入全球化時代的經驗中，有所醒悟？開啟黨內公平有序的競爭，逐步開放黨內權力的透明度，實踐國慶口號所提「繼續解放思想」，「建設創新型國家！」
遺憾的是，在六十週年慶典的大規模活動中，公眾看不到這種「創新」，正如許多傳媒所指，一場歡慶，變成了有如一場反恐戰爭。北京如臨大敵，草木皆兵，以空前的財力和人力，舉行耀武揚威的大閱兵。其保安防範之嚴超過零八奧運，周邊幾個省市成為北京的護城河，處處設防、電眼密佈，天羅地網、插翅難飛。的士車內都要安裝監聽器、超市不准賣菜刀……與民同樂變成擾民害民，怨聲載道。
人們都在問：何以中南海的常委們如此沒有自信？原因是現實和傳統都非常嚴峻。國內有大量官民矛盾、貧富矛盾、民族矛盾擺不平；周圍有西藏、新疆、台灣、香港問題的壓力不斷。一個平庸的統治集團坐在蓄勢待發的火山口上，除了天天口唸「和諧」、以武力懾人，發揮不叫專政的專政功能，便是他們的不二之選。六十年都是這樣熬過來，毛的獨夫思維一貫是視民如敵、畏民如虎，任何人都不可信。豐功偉績從來不是靠什麼民主造成。而鄧先主則立下遺訓，不准搞西方民主，強勢一代不如一代的後主們，哪個敢越雷池一步搞真正的「黨內民主」？說說大話空話，那也是傳統。
（2009年9月25日香港）
Xi Jinping and the System of Succession
By Jin Zhong
At the fourth plenary session of the 17th CCP Central Committee held in mid September, Xi Jinping, contrary to media projections, was not promoted to Vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). Does this mean the rules of the CCP have changed? Once Xi became a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, Vice-president of China and director of the Central Party School, people gained the impression that he was set to be Hu Jintao’s successor. Moreover, he appeared at the fourth plenary session to announce the resolution on Party construction. Was it some kind of hide-and-seek game? In fact, the basic problem lies in people’s concern for democracy within the Party.
The fourth plenary announced that “democracy within the Party is vital to the Party's life.” However, it was quite another story when the General Office of the CCP Central Committee announced the slogans for the 60th anniversary of the PRC: five among the 50 slogans emphasize “harmony,” and the key one is “organic integration of maintaining the Party's leadership, the people as masters of the country, and ruling the country by law.” The slogan only mentions the people being the masters of the country, but not enjoying democracy. While harping on “harmony,” the leaders are afraid of “democracy.” Does this mean democracy can exist within the Party but is forbidden among the people? Is the government worried that people will make use of democracy to overturn the government? If that were the case, it would be a good thing. ?
What democracy within the Party must face first and foremost is the system of succession. This system is the opposite of that accomplished through universal suffrage in democratic countries, demonstrating the most obvious difference between autocracy and democracy in respect of the origin and succession of supreme power in a country. The constitutions of both China and the CCP state clearly that the top leaders are to be elected. Theoretically, they don’t have the courage and basis to advocate succession of national power or make deals under the table. However, the reality is another story.
From Mao to Deng, the top leaders insisted on choosing their successors, but from Liu Shaoqi to Zhao Ziyang, all met their Waterloo, and the entire nation had to pay a heavy price for it. Relying on the first generation’s power, this system has continued even since Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao came onto the stage. It is clear that Jiang and Hu didn’t have the prestige Mao and Deng had to appoint their successors. As a result, when the fifth generation of the CCP comes to power, i.e., when Xi Jinping takes over from Hu Jintao, the nation will face challenges never before seen in the past six decades, and that is today’s real focus.
From another perspective, this also offers the Party elders a valuable opportunity to see whether they can learn from history and wake up to reality – launching a fair and orderly competition within the Party, enhancing the transparency of the Party and putting slogans such as “further emancipation of the mind” and “construction of an innovative nation!” into practice.???
Regrettably, the arrangements for the great celebration of the 60th anniversary of the PRC did not allow for any “innovation.” As most media pointed out, the celebration was planned like a War on Terror. Beijing, as if facing a formidable enemy, planned the greatest and most impressive military parade ever assembled. Extreme security measures were taken for the parade, with neighbouring provinces serving as moats for the city; defences were set up everywhere; taxis were connected to tracking monitors; supermarkets were ordered not to sell sharp knives…The disruption of daily life occasioned by the extreme measures in preparation for the celebration led to complaints from all quarters, and what should have been a celebration became little more than an oppression for the majority of the populace.
Everybody is asking the same question: why are the Standing Committee members in Zhongnanhai so lacking in confidence? The reason lies in the current situation and also in tradition. There are contradictions between the officials and the people, between the rich and the poor, and between different ethnicities, while pressure from problems in Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan and Hong Kong continues. The mediocrities occupying the seat of power have no choice but to talk of “harmony” all day and threaten the people with armed force, serving the function of a dictatorship that cannot speak its name. And so it has gone for the past 60 years.
The CCP’s “remarkable achievements” were never the result of democracy. On the other hand, Deng Xiaoping in his last words warned future leaders not to introduce Western-style democracy to China. How would his successors, enjoying so much less power and influence, dare to develop genuine “democracy within the Party”? Lies and empty words are also tradition, after all.
25th September, 2009 in Hong Kong
(Translated by Isabella Lam)
